Market: Alfa Capital has a generally positive outlook on the Russian stock market — in the base case scenario, it will grow by 25%, including due to dividend payments on shares.
Vladimir Bragin, Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis at Alfa Capital Management Company, says that the increase in the Central Bank rate is putting pressure on the market, and the risk-free yield is growing, but this will not last long.
At the same time, most of the risks — from geopolitical ones to the increase in the tax burden on business — have already been realized. So the Moscow Exchange index will be supported by dividends, the change of jurisdictions of quasi-Russian companies, the absence of foreign investors, and the fact that the valuation of many companies is still far from historical maximums. If there are failures in foreign policy and mistakes in the economy, Bragin expects a 10% fall — this is Alfa Capital’s negative scenario.